Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | COLG -410 L-MD +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +3 | 199 | Won |
| Massey | COLG -10.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (+43.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -7.5 (-4.5) | 148.0 (+51.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -9.3 (-6.3) | 147.8 (+51.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -9.4 (-6.4) | 147.9 (+51.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -10.0 (-7.0) | 150.1 (+48.9) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | COLG 90 – 77 L-MD |
| Jan 15, 2026 | COLG 86 – 80 L-MD |
| Feb 23, 2025 | L-MD 84 – 65 COLG |
| Feb 8, 2025 | COLG 82 – 68 L-MD |
| Feb 10, 2024 | COLG 76 – 62 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLG | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#216) | -11.0 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#233) | -2.04 (#334) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#236) | -2.62 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#157) | 0.416 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLG | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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