Betting Lines
| Spread | NOLA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
| Money | NOLA -650 UIW +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NOLA +27 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | NOLA -12.3 (+14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (-2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NOLA -10.9 (+16.1) | 145.4 (-4.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NOLA -10.4 (+16.6) | 144.8 (-3.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NOLA -10.1 (+16.9) | 144.6 (-3.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NOLA -9.6 (+17.4) | 143.3 (-2.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NOLA 78 – 64 UIW |
| Dec 9, 2025 | NOLA 84 – 83 UIW |
| Feb 11, 2025 | UIW 75 – 65 NOLA |
| Jan 28, 2025 | UIW 74 – 58 NOLA |
| Mar 2, 2024 | NOLA 87 – 80 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 3-11 |
| Home | 12-2 | 5-10 |
| Away | 3-10 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#253) | -14.0 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#231) | -2.85 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#228) | -3.12 (#344) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#210) | 0.408 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 32.2% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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