Betting Lines
| Spread | UIW -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | UIW -148 NOLA +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NOLA +14 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | UIW -0.7 (-14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (-17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIW -0.8 (-14.8) | 149.8 (-7.8) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIW -1.1 (-15.1) | 148.9 (-6.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIW -0.5 (-14.5) | 150.6 (-8.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UIW -0.2 (-14.2) | 153.3 (-11.3) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2025 | NOLA 84 – 83 UIW |
| Feb 11, 2025 | UIW 75 – 65 NOLA |
| Jan 28, 2025 | UIW 74 – 58 NOLA |
| Mar 2, 2024 | NOLA 87 – 80 UIW |
| Feb 3, 2024 | UIW 82 – 80 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 7-15 | 12-10 |
| Home | 9-6 | 5-6 |
| Away | 2-12 | 9-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#252) | -3.0 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#304) | -0.55 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#302) | -0.58 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#314) | 0.494 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 34.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.8% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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