Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | ETSU -200 SAM +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +4 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | ETSU -4.9 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -5.4 (-9.4) | 146.6 (+3.4) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -4.4 (-8.4) | 149.0 (+1.0) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -3.6 (-7.6) | 150.3 (-0.3) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -4.2 (-8.2) | 147.9 (+2.1) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | SAM 82 – 72 ETSU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | ETSU 76 – 75 SAM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ETSU 66 – 59 SAM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ETSU 65 – 60 SAM |
| Mar 11, 2024 | SAM 76 – 69 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-10 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#176) | -2.3 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#155) | 0.37 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#160) | 0.20 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#134) | 0.512 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 13.4% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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