Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
| Money | PV +115 SOU -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +7 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -5.4 (+12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (+9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -2.1 (+9.1) | 148.5 (+12.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -4.5 (+11.5) | 148.1 (+12.9) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -4.7 (+11.7) | 150.4 (+10.6) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -5.2 (+12.2) | 149.6 (+11.4) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | PV 72 – 66 SOU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SOU 87 – 82 PV |
| Jan 6, 2026 | PV 89 – 85 SOU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SOU 72 – 60 PV |
| Jan 7, 2025 | SOU 84 – 80 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-19 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 5-4 | 10-2 |
| Away | 3-15 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#307) | 0.0 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.34 (#337) | -0.12 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.64 (#329) | -0.39 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#319) | 0.497 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 24.0% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 25.9% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.2% | 33.6% |
Game Analysis
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