Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | SOU -2000 PV +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +12 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -13.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (-21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -12.1 (-0.1) | 150.6 (-18.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -11.8 (+0.2) | 147.8 (-15.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -12.3 (-0.3) | 148.3 (-16.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -11.4 (+0.6) | 151.4 (-19.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | PV 72 – 66 SOU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SOU 87 – 82 PV |
| Jan 6, 2026 | PV 89 – 85 SOU |
| Jan 7, 2025 | SOU 84 – 80 PV |
| Feb 17, 2024 | SOU 77 – 71 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-1 | 3-7 |
| Away | 9-10 | 2-19 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 82.2 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#223) | -13.9 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#186) | -3.33 (#358) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#180) | -3.96 (#358) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#182) | 0.370 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 28.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 60.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
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