Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | PV +150 SOU -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +5 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -1.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -1.0 (-4.0) | 158.9 (+10.1) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -1.3 (-3.7) | 159.2 (+9.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -0.8 (-4.2) | 157.2 (+11.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -0.7 (-4.3) | 157.5 (+11.5) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | PV 72 – 66 SOU |
| Jan 6, 2026 | PV 89 – 85 SOU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SOU 72 – 60 PV |
| Jan 7, 2025 | SOU 84 – 80 PV |
| Feb 17, 2024 | SOU 77 – 71 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-18 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -12.4 (#334) | -8.5 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#334) | -1.12 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.56 (#330) | -1.36 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#350) | 0.439 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 33.2% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 62.8% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.6% | 34.0% |
Game Analysis
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