Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | SOU -340 PV +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +4 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -4.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.7 (+2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -3.2 (-7.2) | 160.0 (+14.0) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -4.0 (-8.0) | 157.9 (+16.1) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -3.4 (-7.4) | 159.6 (+14.4) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -2.4 (-6.4) | 158.3 (+15.7) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | PV 72 – 66 SOU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SOU 87 – 82 PV |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SOU 72 – 60 PV |
| Jan 7, 2025 | SOU 84 – 80 PV |
| Feb 17, 2024 | SOU 77 – 71 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 19-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 7-12 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#286) | -8.2 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#290) | -2.18 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.13 (#295) | -2.97 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#283) | 0.439 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 62.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.3% | 42.5% |
Game Analysis
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