Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | PV +130 SOU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +6 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -3.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -3.0 (-3.0) | 144.0 (+4.0) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -2.8 (-3.2) | 144.4 (+3.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -3.2 (-2.8) | 139.9 (+8.1) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -2.7 (-3.3) | 142.2 (+5.8) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | PV 72 – 66 SOU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SOU 87 – 82 PV |
| Jan 6, 2026 | PV 89 – 85 SOU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SOU 72 – 60 PV |
| Jan 7, 2025 | SOU 84 – 80 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 5-6 | 11-2 |
| Away | 4-15 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L7 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -10.2 (#325) | -3.8 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#278) | 0.27 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#289) | -0.10 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#285) | 0.514 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.3% | 32.0% |
Game Analysis
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