Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | SOU -180 PV +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +6 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -2.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (-21.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -1.0 (-7.0) | 150.4 (-12.4) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -2.3 (-8.3) | 151.1 (-13.1) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -0.5 (-6.5) | 148.6 (-10.6) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -1.4 (-7.4) | 146.4 (-8.4) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | SOU 87 – 82 PV |
| Jan 6, 2026 | PV 89 – 85 SOU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SOU 72 – 60 PV |
| Jan 7, 2025 | SOU 84 – 80 PV |
| Feb 17, 2024 | SOU 77 – 71 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 19-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 7-12 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#295) | -10.4 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#251) | -1.36 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#250) | -1.65 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#248) | 0.454 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 32.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.3% | 32.1% |
Game Analysis
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