Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | PV +165 SOU -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +4 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -1.3 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.9 (+9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -1.3 (-2.7) | 148.1 (+15.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -1.5 (-2.5) | 145.1 (+18.9) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -2.0 (-2.0) | 145.5 (+18.5) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -1.7 (-2.3) | 145.2 (+18.8) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | PV 72 – 66 SOU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SOU 87 – 82 PV |
| Jan 6, 2026 | PV 89 – 85 SOU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SOU 72 – 60 PV |
| Feb 17, 2024 | SOU 77 – 71 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 15-3 |
| Home | 3-7 | 11-1 |
| Away | 2-19 | 9-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.2 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#324) | -4.6 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.69 (#346) | -0.47 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.60 (#345) | -0.90 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#313) | 0.515 (#142) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 26.4 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.5% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 58.2% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.6% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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