Betting Lines
| Spread | UPST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | UPST -125 UNCA +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +27 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | UPST -1.1 (-28.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -0.2 (-27.2) | 146.1 (-7.1) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -1.7 (-28.7) | 145.5 (-6.5) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -1.1 (-28.1) | 147.5 (-8.5) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -1.1 (-28.1) | 146.7 (-7.7) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | UNCA 76 – 67 UPST |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNCA 83 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UNCA 92 – 85 UPST |
| Jan 15, 2025 | UNCA 93 – 92 UPST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UNCA 77 – 64 UPST |
Game Analysis
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