Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -130 VCU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +15 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -1.1 (-16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.9 (+30.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -1.1 (-16.1) | 134.8 (+20.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -1.4 (-16.4) | 133.6 (+21.4) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -0.8 (-15.8) | 135.0 (+20.0) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -1.1 (-16.1) | 133.2 (+21.8) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | VCU 70 – 65 GMU |
| Jan 10, 2026 | GMU 86 – 80 VCU |
| Mar 16, 2025 | VCU 68 – 63 GMU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VCU 70 – 54 GMU |
| Jan 10, 2024 | VCU 54 – 50 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 62.4 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#103) | 7.0 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#139) | 1.77 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#128) | 1.73 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#146) | 0.590 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 43.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 25.9% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.