They were all in love with dying, they we're doing it in Texas. "Pepper" - Butthole Surfers
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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44–17 on winners spread MAE 8.6 61 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Ohio @ Central Michigan -11.2 143.8 15% 81–72 ✓
Indiana State @ Evansville -2.5 133.8 33% 80–77 ✓
Southern Miss @ UAB +24.0 144.9 91% 63–84 ✓
Old Dominion @ Middle Tennessee +8.0 141.5 82% 48–63 ✓
Florida International @ Marshall +2.7 151.9 57% 72–71 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Charlotte -1.4 147.2 45% 82–77 ✓
Bryant @ Sacred Heart -3.7 156.9 33% 99–86 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Merrimack +4.7 128.8 64% 60–57 ✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Long Island University +5.4 146.0 69% 69–74 ✓
Saint Francis @ Fairleigh Dickinson -1.2 145.0 44% 78–65 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Longwood +9.9 148.1 82% 72–85 ✓
UIC @ Cleveland State +8.5 152.4 80% 76–75 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Purdue Fort Wayne +15.4 127.2 89% 57–72 ✓
Arkansas State @ Troy +2.3 136.0 62% 77–79 ✓
Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina +4.1 138.4 66% 61–50 ✗
North Dakota State @ Western Illinois +1.8 151.8 52% 84–81 ✗
Mercer @ VMI +5.1 149.8 71% 79–85 ✓
The Citadel @ UNC Greensboro +5.3 143.6 73% 66–86 ✓
Hofstra @ Drexel +0.2 148.1 49% 83–73 ✗
Northeastern @ Delaware +7.8 136.5 76% 61–74 ✓
Elon @ James Madison +4.4 145.2 67% 70–66 ✗
Iowa @ Maryland -2.9 152.8 35% 110–87 ✓
UT Arlington @ UL Monroe +0.2 140.4 49% 71–74 ✓
Duke @ Clemson -4.5 143.7 32% 82–64 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Nicholls +12.4 146.2 86% 58–69 ✓
UT Martin @ SIU Edwardsville +1.3 139.5 56% 63–71 ✓
Morehead State @ Belmont +10.2 145.5 83% 47–48 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Western Kentucky +3.4 150.7 66% 69–76 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ LSU New Orleans +2.4 149.6 68% 69–78 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Utah Valley +2.5 131.8 64% 79–69 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Chicago State -11.4 139.1 15% 81–61 ✓
Texas State @ Louisiana +1.7 136.9 58% 82–73 ✗
Little Rock @ South Alabama +12.7 143.6 87% 46–77 ✓
North Dakota @ St. Thomas +8.2 150.6 73% 78–70 ✗
South Dakota @ Omaha -6.6 153.7 27% 91–69 ✓
Murray State @ Tennessee State -12.7 140.3 13% 73–62 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Eastern Illinois -9.4 131.6 20% 73–62 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Austin Peay +2.0 146.4 55% 66–74 ✓
Houston Christian @ Northwestern State +4.0 155.0 70% 76–69 ✗
Pacific @ Gonzaga +30.3 155.1 91% 51–89 ✓
Purdue @ Michigan -3.5 151.6 40% 58–82 ✗
Arizona @ Washington State -4.7 141.8 39% 72–60 ✓
San Diego @ Saint Mary's +13.5 133.9 86% 57–86 ✓
Stanford @ Oregon +7.3 141.6 81% 60–68 ✓
Portland State @ Montana State +11.7 143.9 86% 74–77 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Montana +9.8 141.5 83% 72–67 ✗
Idaho State @ Idaho +4.8 143.5 64% 79–70 ✗
Weber State @ Eastern Washington -1.2 157.6 47% 67–75 ✗
New Mexico State @ Utah Tech -10.6 141.5 20% 77–69 ✓
South Dakota State @ Denver -10.3 158.3 16% 84–61 ✓
McNeese @ SE Louisiana +3.2 156.8 67% 86–91 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC Irvine +4.8 124.1 67% 56–66 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Bakersfield -3.3 130.9 28% 74–62 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal Poly +2.6 129.8 47% 83–78 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Sacramento State -5.0 144.8 30% 79–61 ✓
Lamar @ California Baptist +10.4 138.6 84% 61–83 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Seattle U +10.7 156.1 86% 59–67 ✓
Arizona State @ Washington +1.7 142.8 64% 64–87 ✓
BYU @ Loyola Marymount -7.5 142.1 22% 83–82 ✓
Pepperdine @ San Francisco +17.4 145.1 89% 61–105 ✓
Long Beach State @ Hawai'i +1.9 143.4 58% 73–66 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.