Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | USA -1400 LR +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +31 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | USA -16.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -11.3 (+19.7) | 141.3 (-18.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -11.8 (+19.2) | 143.7 (-20.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -12.7 (+18.3) | 143.6 (-20.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -12.6 (+18.4) | 141.9 (-18.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2022 | LR 75 – 71 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 9-19 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 3-11 |
| Home | 15-3 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.7 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#124) | -10.8 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#133) | -1.28 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#123) | -1.64 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#110) | 0.422 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 56.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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