Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +4 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -13.8 (-17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -10.0 (-14.0) | 134.4 (+11.6) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -11.2 (-15.2) | 137.0 (+9.0) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -10.7 (-14.7) | 136.5 (+9.5) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -10.4 (-14.4) | 135.7 (+10.3) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2022 | USA 77 – 46 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 9-19 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 3-11 |
| Home | 15-3 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.7 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#125) | -11.3 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#130) | -1.30 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#124) | -1.68 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#101) | 0.433 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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