Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Over |
| Money | SMC -1600 USD +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +29 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -16.1 (+12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.9 (+20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -15.0 (+14.0) | 132.5 (+10.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -12.3 (+16.7) | 133.4 (+9.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -13.5 (+15.5) | 133.9 (+9.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -13.8 (+15.2) | 133.1 (+9.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | SMC 87 – 60 USD |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SMC 103 – 56 USD |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SMC 88 – 62 USD |
| Jan 5, 2024 | SMC 81 – 70 USD |
| Feb 17, 2023 | SMC 62 – 59 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 7-9 |
| Home | 16-0 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-4 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.3 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#25) | -1.1 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#29) | 0.19 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.78 (#34) | 0.42 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#9) | 0.500 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 78.0% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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