Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | MD +145 IOWA -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +23 | 197 | Lost |
| Massey | IOWA -5.2 (-17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (+44.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -4.6 (-18.4) | 150.2 (+46.8) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -2.8 (-20.2) | 148.5 (+48.5) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -2.9 (-20.1) | 152.8 (+44.2) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -3.8 (-19.2) | 150.4 (+46.6) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | IOWA 75 – 64 MD |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MD 77 – 70 IOWA |
| Dec 6, 2025 | IOWA 83 – 64 MD |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MD 101 – 75 IOWA |
| Feb 15, 2024 | MD 78 – 66 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-8 | 15-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#89) | 14.5 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#98) | 1.98 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#94) | 2.61 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#104) | 0.572 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 12.3% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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