Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | IOWA -800 MD +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +11 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -13.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -11.0 (-0.0) | 131.9 (+7.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -12.9 (-1.9) | 133.4 (+5.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -10.9 (+0.1) | 133.7 (+5.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -11.5 (-0.5) | 133.7 (+5.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | MD 77 – 70 IOWA |
| Dec 6, 2025 | IOWA 83 – 64 MD |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MD 101 – 75 IOWA |
| Feb 15, 2024 | MD 78 – 66 IOWA |
| Jan 25, 2024 | MD 69 – 67 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 4-16 |
| Home | 15-3 | 7-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 16.2 (#26) | 2.3 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#40) | 0.75 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#37) | 1.02 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#62) | 0.507 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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