Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | MD +440 IOWA -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +7 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -14.2 (+21.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -12.0 (+19.0) | 139.5 (+7.5) | 15% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -11.6 (+18.6) | 138.3 (+8.7) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -11.6 (+18.6) | 140.8 (+6.2) | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -12.3 (+19.3) | 140.7 (+6.3) | 15% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | IOWA 75 – 64 MD |
| Dec 6, 2025 | IOWA 83 – 64 MD |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MD 101 – 75 IOWA |
| Feb 15, 2024 | MD 78 – 66 IOWA |
| Jan 25, 2024 | MD 69 – 67 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 10-10 |
| Home | 7-8 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-10 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#154) | 17.8 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#102) | 2.96 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#109) | 3.88 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#142) | 0.598 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 51.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 58.5% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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