Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | MD -213 IOWA +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +12 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | MD -1.7 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -2.5 (+9.5) | 146.3 (-2.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -3.3 (+8.7) | 142.3 (+1.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -2.4 (+9.6) | 141.9 (+2.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -2.0 (+10.0) | 143.7 (+0.3) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | IOWA 75 – 64 MD |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MD 77 – 70 IOWA |
| Dec 6, 2025 | IOWA 83 – 64 MD |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MD 101 – 75 IOWA |
| Jan 25, 2024 | MD 69 – 67 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 79.4 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#63) | 10.7 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#102) | 1.27 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#77) | 1.83 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#133) | 0.540 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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