Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | MD -700 IOWA +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +26 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | MD -12.3 (+13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.5 (+12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -14.0 (+12.0) | 158.9 (+17.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -12.2 (+13.8) | 158.1 (+17.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -11.8 (+14.2) | 161.4 (+14.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -11.7 (+14.3) | 160.2 (+15.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | IOWA 75 – 64 MD |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MD 77 – 70 IOWA |
| Dec 6, 2025 | IOWA 83 – 64 MD |
| Feb 15, 2024 | MD 78 – 66 IOWA |
| Jan 25, 2024 | MD 69 – 67 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-13 |
| Home | 17-2 | 12-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 82.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 79.7 |
| Massey | 19.6 (#12) | 10.5 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#27) | 1.61 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.83 (#16) | 2.25 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#38) | 0.536 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 57.5% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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