Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
| Money | CLT +145 LT -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +5 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | LT -3.6 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (+13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -0.8 (-4.2) | 146.8 (+12.2) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -3.4 (-1.6) | 144.4 (+14.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -1.0 (-4.0) | 145.7 (+13.3) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -1.4 (-3.6) | 147.2 (+11.8) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2023 | CLT 74 – 67 LT |
| Dec 31, 2022 | CLT 68 – 66 LT |
Game Analysis
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