Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
| Money | UL -130 TXST +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +9 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | UL -2.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (+20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -1.3 (-10.3) | 131.9 (+23.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -1.6 (-10.6) | 135.7 (+19.3) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UL -1.7 (-10.7) | 136.9 (+18.1) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -1.1 (-10.1) | 134.5 (+20.5) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UL 67 – 54 TXST |
| Jan 15, 2026 | TXST 59 – 54 UL |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UL 70 – 61 TXST |
| Jan 23, 2025 | TXST 89 – 74 UL |
| Jan 28, 2024 | UL 66 – 46 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 21-8 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 12-3 |
| Home | 7-6 | 12-1 |
| Away | 6-8 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 65.3 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#178) | 0.1 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#206) | 0.77 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#190) | 0.69 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#206) | 0.533 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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