Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | MTST -475 PRST +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +3 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -12.4 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (+11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -10.7 (-7.7) | 142.7 (+8.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -12.4 (-9.4) | 145.1 (+5.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -11.7 (-8.7) | 143.9 (+7.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -11.8 (-8.8) | 143.5 (+7.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MTST 84 – 69 PRST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | PRST 63 – 54 MTST |
| Feb 28, 2025 | PRST 69 – 52 MTST |
| Feb 2, 2025 | MTST 74 – 73 PRST |
| Feb 23, 2024 | MTST 72 – 67 PRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 10-10 |
| Home | 13-1 | 7-7 |
| Away | 9-6 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#133) | -7.3 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#111) | -1.69 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#107) | -1.72 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#107) | 0.409 (#319) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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