Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | UNCG -300 CIT +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +20 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -7.1 (+12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -7.5 (+12.5) | 144.5 (+7.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -4.8 (+15.2) | 142.3 (+9.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -5.3 (+14.7) | 143.6 (+8.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -5.5 (+14.5) | 144.3 (+7.7) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | CIT 71 – 66 UNCG |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UNCG 69 – 66 CIT |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNCG 76 – 61 CIT |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNCG 70 – 57 CIT |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UNCG 76 – 61 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-5 | 7-8 |
| Away | 7-6 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.1 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#176) | -4.5 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#140) | -0.61 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#145) | -0.87 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#142) | 0.470 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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