Betting Lines
| Spread | IDHO -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
| Money | IDHO -170 IDST +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDHO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +9 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | IDHO -6.8 (-15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDHO -3.6 (-12.6) | 143.4 (+5.6) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDHO -4.1 (-13.1) | 144.4 (+4.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IDHO -4.8 (-13.8) | 143.5 (+5.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDHO -3.6 (-12.6) | 142.3 (+6.7) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | IDHO 99 – 69 IDST |
| Jan 16, 2026 | IDST 76 – 68 IDHO |
| Feb 28, 2025 | IDST 69 – 65 IDHO |
| Feb 1, 2025 | IDST 87 – 71 IDHO |
| Feb 17, 2024 | IDHO 55 – 53 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDHO | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 5-15 |
| Home | 8-7 | 5-8 |
| Away | 1-12 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.3 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -11.0 (#325) | -14.7 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.23 (#332) | -2.86 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.32 (#317) | -2.83 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.398 (#329) | 0.350 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDHO | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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