Betting Lines
| Spread | IDHO -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | IDHO -325 IDST +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDHO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDHO +30 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | IDHO -5.1 (+24.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (+20.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDHO -4.8 (+25.2) | 142.9 (+25.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDHO -3.8 (+26.2) | 144.3 (+23.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDHO -4.7 (+25.3) | 145.2 (+22.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDHO -4.6 (+25.4) | 144.3 (+23.7) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2026 | IDST 76 – 68 IDHO |
| Feb 28, 2025 | IDST 69 – 65 IDHO |
| Feb 1, 2025 | IDST 87 – 71 IDHO |
| Feb 17, 2024 | IDHO 55 – 53 IDST |
| Jan 19, 2024 | IDST 64 – 59 IDHO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDHO | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#178) | -3.0 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#215) | -1.16 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#203) | -1.22 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#246) | 0.444 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDHO | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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