Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | IDHO +125 IDST -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDHO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDHO +2 | 108 | Won |
| Massey | IDHO -0.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (-29.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDHO -0.3 (+1.7) | 139.6 (-31.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -0.2 (+2.2) | 136.2 (-28.2) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -0.3 (+2.3) | 140.3 (-32.3) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -0.2 (+2.2) | 141.1 (-33.1) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | IDHO 99 – 69 IDST |
| Jan 16, 2026 | IDST 76 – 68 IDHO |
| Feb 28, 2025 | IDST 69 – 65 IDHO |
| Feb 1, 2025 | IDST 87 – 71 IDHO |
| Jan 19, 2024 | IDST 64 – 59 IDHO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDHO | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-10 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#298) | -4.8 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#295) | -0.91 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#298) | -1.05 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#312) | 0.439 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDHO | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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