Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | IDST -175 IDHO +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +5 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | IDST -5.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -3.1 (+1.9) | 135.6 (-12.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -3.7 (+1.3) | 133.8 (-10.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -3.0 (+2.0) | 136.3 (-13.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -3.2 (+1.8) | 136.8 (-13.8) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | IDHO 99 – 69 IDST |
| Jan 16, 2026 | IDST 76 – 68 IDHO |
| Feb 28, 2025 | IDST 69 – 65 IDHO |
| Feb 1, 2025 | IDST 87 – 71 IDHO |
| Feb 17, 2024 | IDHO 55 – 53 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-20 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-10 |
| Away | 4-13 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#272) | -7.2 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#302) | -1.00 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#295) | -1.45 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#318) | 0.431 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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