Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | IDST -210 IDHO +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +16 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | IDST -5.7 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (+12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -3.8 (+12.2) | 143.6 (+14.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -4.5 (+11.5) | 142.8 (+15.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -4.0 (+12.0) | 143.4 (+14.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -3.7 (+12.3) | 144.3 (+13.7) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | IDHO 99 – 69 IDST |
| Jan 16, 2026 | IDST 76 – 68 IDHO |
| Feb 28, 2025 | IDST 69 – 65 IDHO |
| Feb 17, 2024 | IDHO 55 – 53 IDST |
| Jan 19, 2024 | IDST 64 – 59 IDHO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-15 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#201) | -4.4 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#271) | -0.72 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#251) | -1.03 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#296) | 0.452 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 40.5% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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