Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | IDST -125 IDHO +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +8 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | IDST -5.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -3.6 (+4.4) | 146.0 (-2.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -3.9 (+4.1) | 147.4 (-3.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -3.7 (+4.3) | 146.3 (-2.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -3.0 (+5.0) | 147.5 (-3.5) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | IDHO 99 – 69 IDST |
| Feb 28, 2025 | IDST 69 – 65 IDHO |
| Feb 1, 2025 | IDST 87 – 71 IDHO |
| Feb 17, 2024 | IDHO 55 – 53 IDST |
| Jan 19, 2024 | IDST 64 – 59 IDHO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#148) | -0.4 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#202) | 0.07 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#193) | -0.01 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#223) | 0.483 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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