Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
| Money | FDU +100 SFPA -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +13 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | SFPA -1.4 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFPA -0.9 (-12.1) | 143.6 (-0.6) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -1.4 (-11.6) | 143.9 (-0.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -1.2 (-11.8) | 145.0 (-2.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -0.9 (-12.1) | 145.5 (-2.5) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | FDU 66 – 59 SFPA |
| Jan 4, 2026 | SFPA 85 – 82 FDU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SFPA 85 – 80 FDU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SFPA 75 – 71 FDU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | FDU 93 – 74 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-22 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 3-8 | 4-8 |
| Away | 2-16 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -14.7 (#351) | -10.2 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.38 (#355) | -2.36 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.73 (#350) | -2.64 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.376 (#348) | 0.396 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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