Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -12.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | DEN +550 SDST -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +23 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -11.5 (-11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (-13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -10.4 (-12.6) | 157.0 (-12.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -11.6 (-11.4) | 159.8 (-14.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -10.3 (-12.7) | 158.3 (-13.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -12.1 (-10.9) | 155.8 (-10.8) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | DEN 79 – 61 SDST |
| Jan 9, 2026 | SDST 87 – 79 DEN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | DEN 78 – 62 SDST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SDST 91 – 70 DEN |
| Mar 13, 2024 | SDST 76 – 68 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 18-0 |
| Home | 6-7 | 14-0 |
| Away | 4-12 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 84.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#294) | 7.2 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#300) | 1.75 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#303) | 1.84 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#310) | 0.587 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 51.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 43.3% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 59.0% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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