Betting Lines
| Spread | Pick'em Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | ULM -110 UTA -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ULM +3 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | ULM -0.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -0.9 (+3.9) | 138.2 (+6.8) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ULM -0.5 (+2.5) | 139.5 (+5.5) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ULM -0.2 (+2.8) | 140.4 (+4.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ULM -0.4 (+2.6) | 139.7 (+5.3) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2024 | UTA 77 – 68 ULM |
| Dec 3, 2024 | UTA 84 – 70 ULM |
| Jan 15, 2022 | ULM 62 – 55 UTA |
| Feb 6, 2021 | UTA 58 – 52 ULM |
| Feb 6, 2021 | UTA 63 – 56 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-10 |
| Home | 7-7 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L6 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#282) | -3.6 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#201) | -0.36 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#217) | -0.20 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#188) | 0.472 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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