The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
Sun Belt Conference · College Park Center · January 15, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread UTA -6.0 Away covered
O/U 143.0 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total UTA win
Actual ULM +7 117 Lost
Massey UTA -7.6 (-14.6)
Massey Totals 147.1 (-30.1)
Bradley-Terry 74%
Weighted B-T 80%
Baseline Plus ML UTA -4.6 (-11.6) 147.1 (-30.1) 70%
Baseline ML UTA -5.1 (-12.1) 148.0 (-31.0) 77%
Baseline Tuned ML UTA -5.5 (-12.5) 147.2 (-30.2) 74%
Efficiency Plus ML UTA -5.0 (-12.0) 146.4 (-29.4) 73%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 14, 2024 UTA 7768 ULM
Dec 3, 2024 UTA 8470 ULM
Feb 11, 2022 ULM 7471 UTA
Feb 6, 2021 UTA 5852 ULM
Feb 6, 2021 UTA 6356 ULM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UTA ULM
Overall 11-18 13-18
Conference 7-10 5-13
Home 8-4 7-7
Away 3-13 5-10
Neutral 0-1 1-1
Last 5 4-1 1-4
Streak L4 L6
Avg Pts For 64.8 69.2
Avg Pts Against 69.3 75.4
Massey -2.8 (#229) -6.5 (#280)
Bradley-Terry 0.20 (#165) -0.16 (#190)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.35 (#152) -0.27 (#194)
RPI 0.510 (#152) 0.512 (#146)
Shooting & Four Factors UTA ULM
FG% 40.8% 45.8%
3PT% 29.1% 33.3%
REB / G 37.4 30.7
OREB / G 11.4 8.6
AST / TO 0.88 1.27
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.3% 51.7%
TOV% 21.4% 18.0%
ORB% 30.5% 24.5%
FT Rate 19.7% 17.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.7% 55.5%
Opp TOV% 18.4% 19.6%
DRB% 68.5% 65.4%
Opp FT Rate 22.0% 24.3%

Game Analysis

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