Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
| Money | APSU -150 SEMO +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +8 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -4.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -2.6 (+5.4) | 143.7 (-3.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -2.3 (+5.7) | 144.3 (-4.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -2.0 (+6.0) | 146.4 (-6.4) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -1.7 (+6.3) | 145.3 (-5.3) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 1, 2022 | SEMO 98 – 79 APSU |
| Feb 17, 2021 | SEMO 86 – 81 APSU |
| Feb 13, 2021 | APSU 78 – 63 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-17 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-9 |
| Home | 6-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-11 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.6 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#265) | -6.6 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#287) | -1.29 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#282) | -1.69 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#269) | 0.455 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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