Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | SEMO +240 APSU -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +5 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -3.7 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+24.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -3.4 (+8.4) | 134.0 (+33.0) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -4.3 (+9.3) | 141.2 (+25.8) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -4.0 (+9.0) | 143.3 (+23.7) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -3.6 (+8.6) | 139.6 (+27.4) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2022 | APSU 74 – 66 SEMO |
| Jan 1, 2022 | SEMO 98 – 79 APSU |
| Feb 13, 2021 | APSU 78 – 63 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-16 | 14-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 7-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#289) | -2.3 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.95 (#315) | -0.52 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.58 (#317) | -0.88 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.416 (#304) | 0.487 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 78.5% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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