Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +19 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -0.1 (+19.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (+22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -0.0 (+19.0) | 146.4 (+30.6) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -0.6 (+18.4) | 150.3 (+26.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -0.4 (+18.6) | 150.8 (+26.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -1.1 (+17.9) | 147.9 (+29.1) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2022 | APSU 74 – 66 SEMO |
| Feb 17, 2021 | SEMO 86 – 81 APSU |
| Feb 13, 2021 | APSU 78 – 63 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 12-17 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 62.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.2 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#323) | -5.3 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#299) | -1.22 (#277) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.36 (#308) | -1.78 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#289) | 0.433 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 15.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.7% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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