And the only safe place to live is on an Indian reservation. "Ball of Confusion" - The Temptations
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–18 on winners spread MAE 7.4 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Houston @ SMU -6.2 136.7 34% 83–85 ✗
Ohio State @ Rutgers -3.0 138.8 39% 64–66 ✗
Xavier @ Seton Hall +1.7 141.8 66% 71–73 ✓
Yale @ Harvard +0.3 141.4 48% 62–59 ✗
Army @ Boston University +7.5 143.3 77% 74–75 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Holy Cross -5.1 134.8 30% 64–68 ✗
Cincinnati @ South Florida -8.3 125.5 20% 70–59 ✓
Lehigh @ Colgate +12.2 147.5 86% 62–78 ✓
American University @ Bucknell +2.7 142.3 63% 66–68 ✓
Radford @ Winthrop +9.4 142.0 81% 48–58 ✓
High Point @ Presbyterian +1.9 133.8 59% 79–70 ✗
Charleston Southern @ North Carolina A&T +10.4 139.9 84% 51–62 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Campbell +0.8 131.3 50% 57–45 ✗
Wake Forest @ NC State -5.5 155.8 31% 69–51 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Miami +9.6 142.3 81% 70–79 ✓
Louisville @ Notre Dame +7.9 137.3 78% 57–63 ✓
NJIT @ New Hampshire +5.2 136.1 66% 60–55 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Stony Brook +2.4 140.0 60% 85–87 ✓
Maine @ UAlbany +9.6 130.0 73% 73–63 ✗
Hartford @ UMBC +8.6 145.8 82% 64–68 ✓
Binghamton @ Vermont +15.4 140.5 88% 51–82 ✓
Bellarmine @ North Florida -0.3 139.1 49% 73–70 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Jacksonville +6.4 138.8 71% 68–81 ✓
Oakland @ Youngstown State -2.6 144.1 42% 71–78 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Robert Morris -3.1 142.4 43% 79–62 ✓
George Washington @ Massachusetts +5.6 153.2 72% 77–68 ✗
Richmond @ George Mason +0.9 141.3 56% 84–87 ✓
Duquesne @ Dayton +13.7 131.0 88% 54–75 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Davidson +10.6 145.8 85% 67–73 ✓
Western Carolina @ Chattanooga +16.4 144.9 89% 47–65 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Fairfield +4.8 142.8 71% 69–60 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Delaware State -9.9 123.1 15% 58–50 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Stetson -4.9 140.9 27% 57–63 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Kennesaw State +10.6 152.2 84% 72–83 ✓
North Alabama @ Florida Gulf Coast +6.8 143.2 72% 60–92 ✓
Baylor @ Kansas State -5.2 137.0 34% 75–60 ✓
Tulane @ Memphis +8.3 147.6 79% 69–80 ✓
Wright State @ Green Bay -6.1 139.1 24% 79–62 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Milwaukee -2.9 139.3 32% 75–39 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Northern Iowa +5.9 133.7 73% 44–53 ✓
Valparaiso @ Illinois State +3.6 150.2 67% 75–78 ✓
Missouri State @ Drake +1.5 146.6 59% 66–62 ✗
Wofford @ Samford -1.6 144.9 43% 60–65 ✗
Alabama @ Ole Miss -2.1 145.6 42% 97–83 ✓
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma -1.9 132.7 41% 55–70 ✗
Tennessee @ Mississippi State -2.0 139.1 42% 72–63 ✓
Georgetown @ DePaul +10.1 149.4 83% 74–82 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Florida State +9.9 133.4 82% 56–51 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Bradley -1.8 135.1 48% 61–68 ✗
Minnesota @ Nebraska -4.0 144.7 31% 65–78 ✗
California @ Oregon State -1.0 138.7 45% 63–61 ✓
San Diego State @ San José State -14.5 129.6 12% 72–62 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Wagner +11.3 134.4 85% 57–69 ✓
William & Mary @ Towson +16.5 135.9 89% 60–75 ✓
Georgia Southern @ App State +5.8 128.6 72% 61–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.