Betting Lines
| Spread | BUCK -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUCK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUCK +2 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | BUCK -4.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUCK -2.4 (-0.4) | 141.1 (-7.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUCK -3.0 (-1.0) | 142.8 (-8.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUCK -2.7 (-0.7) | 142.3 (-8.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUCK -2.9 (-0.9) | 142.4 (-8.4) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | AMER 75 – 57 BUCK |
| Feb 5, 2026 | BUCK 60 – 59 AMER |
| Feb 6, 2025 | BUCK 71 – 49 AMER |
| Jan 11, 2025 | AMER 68 – 58 BUCK |
| Mar 8, 2024 | BUCK 80 – 57 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUCK | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 7-6 | 6-5 |
| Away | 2-15 | 4-16 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -11.8 (#332) | -13.2 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.17 (#327) | -2.09 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.71 (#332) | -2.48 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.383 (#343) | 0.387 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUCK | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 22.0% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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