Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
| Money | ILST -190 VAL +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +3 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -4.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (-0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -2.5 (+0.5) | 149.4 (+3.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -3.9 (-0.9) | 149.6 (+3.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -3.6 (-0.6) | 150.2 (+2.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -3.9 (-0.9) | 150.5 (+2.5) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | ILST 86 – 64 VAL |
| Jan 8, 2026 | VAL 77 – 71 ILST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | ILST 86 – 78 VAL |
| Mar 3, 2024 | VAL 75 – 72 ILST |
| Jan 14, 2024 | VAL 59 – 50 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-8 |
| Away | 1-11 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#173) | -2.0 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#251) | -0.57 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#231) | -0.65 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#253) | 0.469 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 19.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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