Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +4 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -8.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -8.9 (-4.9) | 145.9 (-13.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -8.8 (-4.8) | 144.6 (-12.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -9.2 (-5.2) | 145.9 (-13.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -8.6 (-4.6) | 145.8 (-13.8) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2023 | UMBC 87 – 62 HART |
| Mar 10, 2022 | UMBC 80 – 60 HART |
| Feb 24, 2022 | UMBC 92 – 85 HART |
| Jan 17, 2021 | UMBC 57 – 49 HART |
| Jan 16, 2021 | HART 70 – 63 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | HART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-5 |
| Away | 6-10 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#221) | -8.4 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#222) | -2.28 (#334) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#230) | -2.74 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#210) | 0.414 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | HART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.2% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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