Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC -225 HART +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +8 | 106 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -5.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (-25.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -3.4 (+4.6) | 134.5 (-28.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -2.9 (+5.1) | 132.8 (-26.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -3.5 (+4.5) | 133.6 (-27.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -3.6 (+4.4) | 133.7 (-27.7) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2023 | UMBC 87 – 62 HART |
| Mar 10, 2022 | UMBC 80 – 60 HART |
| Feb 24, 2022 | UMBC 92 – 85 HART |
| Feb 10, 2022 | UMBC 68 – 64 HART |
| Jan 16, 2021 | HART 70 – 63 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | HART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-6 | 15-9 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 8-6 |
| Home | 5-4 | 10-1 |
| Away | 9-2 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 63.9 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#153) | -1.3 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#150) | 0.03 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#151) | 0.09 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#192) | 0.525 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | HART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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