Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
| Money | UMBC -170 HART +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +20 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -5.8 (+14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (-12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -5.6 (+14.4) | 153.1 (-13.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -5.8 (+14.2) | 152.6 (-12.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -5.2 (+14.8) | 154.4 (-14.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -4.9 (+15.1) | 155.8 (-15.8) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2023 | UMBC 87 – 62 HART |
| Feb 24, 2022 | UMBC 92 – 85 HART |
| Feb 10, 2022 | UMBC 68 – 64 HART |
| Jan 17, 2021 | UMBC 57 – 49 HART |
| Jan 16, 2021 | HART 70 – 63 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | HART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-5 |
| Away | 6-10 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#231) | -6.4 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#223) | -1.53 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#228) | -1.98 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#208) | 0.448 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | HART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.4% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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