Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC -225 HART +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HART +7 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -6.9 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -5.1 (-12.1) | 135.4 (-2.4) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -4.1 (-11.1) | 133.3 (-0.3) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -5.0 (-12.0) | 134.3 (-1.3) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -5.2 (-12.2) | 134.4 (-1.4) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2023 | UMBC 87 – 62 HART |
| Mar 10, 2022 | UMBC 80 – 60 HART |
| Feb 24, 2022 | UMBC 92 – 85 HART |
| Feb 10, 2022 | UMBC 68 – 64 HART |
| Jan 17, 2021 | UMBC 57 – 49 HART |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | HART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-6 | 15-9 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 8-6 |
| Home | 5-4 | 10-1 |
| Away | 9-2 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 63.9 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#142) | -2.4 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#130) | -0.52 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#137) | -0.53 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#196) | 0.487 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | HART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
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