Betting Lines
| Spread | HART -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HART win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +7 | 177 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -0.3 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (+28.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HART -0.3 (-7.3) | 148.4 (+28.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -0.3 (-6.7) | 148.4 (+28.6) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HART -1.0 (-8.0) | 147.7 (+29.3) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HART -1.1 (-8.1) | 149.1 (+27.9) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2023 | UMBC 87 – 62 HART |
| Mar 10, 2022 | UMBC 80 – 60 HART |
| Feb 10, 2022 | UMBC 68 – 64 HART |
| Jan 17, 2021 | UMBC 57 – 49 HART |
| Jan 16, 2021 | HART 70 – 63 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HART | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-13 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#283) | -3.9 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#303) | -0.74 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.14 (#313) | -1.02 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#277) | 0.469 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HART | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 13.1% |
Game Analysis
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