Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC -2000 HART +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +25 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -22.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -17.1 (+7.9) | 143.5 (+5.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -16.7 (+8.3) | 143.9 (+5.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -16.6 (+8.4) | 144.9 (+4.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -17.3 (+7.7) | 145.4 (+3.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2022 | UMBC 80 – 60 HART |
| Feb 24, 2022 | UMBC 92 – 85 HART |
| Feb 10, 2022 | UMBC 68 – 64 HART |
| Jan 17, 2021 | UMBC 57 – 49 HART |
| Jan 16, 2021 | HART 70 – 63 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | HART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 5-23 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 0-0 |
| Home | 13-4 | 5-10 |
| Away | 5-10 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 59.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#205) | -20.4 (#362) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#161) | -3.66 (#359) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#177) | -4.44 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#181) | 0.334 (#363) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | HART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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