Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | APP -280 GASO +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +4 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | APP -6.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -5.9 (-1.9) | 126.7 (-0.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -5.1 (-1.1) | 128.7 (-2.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -5.8 (-1.8) | 128.6 (-2.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -5.8 (-1.8) | 128.8 (-2.8) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | APP 89 – 74 GASO |
| Feb 12, 2026 | APP 81 – 65 GASO |
| Feb 26, 2025 | GASO 61 – 59 APP |
| Feb 20, 2025 | APP 79 – 74 GASO |
| Mar 9, 2024 | APP 85 – 80 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-11 |
| Home | 11-5 | 7-5 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 63.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#163) | -3.1 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#120) | -0.10 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#118) | -0.46 (#208) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#80) | 0.484 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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