Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | APP -1000 GASO +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +5 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | APP -14.6 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (+17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -12.7 (-7.7) | 146.3 (+18.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -11.2 (-6.2) | 148.1 (+16.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -12.9 (-7.9) | 146.9 (+18.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -12.9 (-7.9) | 146.9 (+18.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | APP 89 – 74 GASO |
| Feb 12, 2026 | APP 81 – 65 GASO |
| Feb 26, 2025 | GASO 61 – 59 APP |
| Feb 20, 2025 | APP 79 – 74 GASO |
| Feb 3, 2024 | APP 85 – 84 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-0 | 6-7 |
| Away | 8-5 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 79.2 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#76) | -7.0 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#59) | -1.49 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#76) | -1.45 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#35) | 0.422 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.6% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
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